Monthly Archives: November 2018

Time Intercon (01729) Performance Analysis (3) – Valuation, Outlook

Valuation

Based on the expected core profit of 170 million yuan for the whole year, the current price-to-earnings ratio is only 5 times. The expected dividend yield is between 4.2 and 6.4%. This valuation is still very underestimated, even though the stock price has risen by more than 60% from the low level, but we Don’t forget that the offer price is 0.5 yuan, and the current price is still lower than the offer price!
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The Sad Ending of Self-Interest

The voluntary conditional offer made by the Taigang (PAG) to Chunquan Trust was finally settled. As a result, the voluntary conditional offer was invalidated because PAG could not obtain more than 50% of the acceptance of the offer, that is, the offer failed, Chunquan’s major shareholder The status remains unchanged, and PAG can only continue to be the second largest shareholder, followed by the Huizhou transaction. If the major shareholders and their alliances remain unchanged, the Huizhou transaction will pass smoothly, and the spring will be passed. Spring will issue new shares at low prices to pay the price of Huizhou transactions, which will seriously dilute shareholders’ equity.
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Time Intercon (01729) Performance Analysis (2) – Performance Review

Let me briefly talk about the interim results.

Revenue increased by 35% to 836 million yuan, gross profit increased by 29% to 184 million yuan, gross profit margin decreased slightly by 1% to 22.1%, net profit increased by 10.5% to 88.4 million yuan, but if one-time gains and losses were eliminated, core profit From 80 million yuan in the same period last year, the growth rate was 20% to 96 million yuan this year, and the core profit per share was as high as 5.2 cents.
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The logic of Tianjin Jinzhuan (01265)

I believe that everyone who has read the notice knows that the transfer of equity in Tianjin Jinzhuan will take only one year to become a success:

But does the stock price have to wait until the day of the event? Perhaps with the progress of the monthly notice disclosure, the stock price will gradually move towards the lowest price of the transfer – the net asset value (NAV) in the coming year. What is the current net asset value per share? About HK$1.06, which means that if the RMB depreciates by 5% next year, the net asset value will fall to 1 yuan. If the merger is successful, the potential return will be calculated according to my recent two incremental price of 0.7 yuan. About 43%, while the time is conservative, some estimates may be 18 months, that is, annualized returns of about 25%.
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Strong stocks

The so-called residual stocks refer to stocks whose stock prices have fallen to very bad.

The two small stocks held by the day before yesterday, Mei Gaoyu (01985) and Huaxin handbags (02683), were all in the same breath, and the two profit warnings were unexpected. They thought that the stock price would fall at least 10-20%, but I was surprised that I couldn’t think of the stock price just after a slight decline.

Then there is today’s TPV Technology (00903), the third quarter results turned into a profit, and the stock price rose 30%, which made me stunned, completely missed this performance.
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I am not activist investor

Continuous appeal against Spring REIT Spring REIT (01426) and Orange Sky Golden Harvest (01132) connected transaction, I feel like I got to be the activist investor same. Seriously, I don’t want to do activist investor. It’s just that when I hold stocks, management or major shareholders are unfair, I certainly don’t like ordinary retail investors. I don’t care about it, I accept it at least, and at least it will be published. Their own views, even calling on other retail investors to respond, exercise the rights of shareholders to oppose all unfair trades or practices.

In many cases, retail investors in Hong Kong are dissatisfied with the misconduct of the major shareholders or management of listed companies, but they only hide their thoughts in their hearts and will not express them or oppose them by action. This is not a purely personal conjecture. The easiest thing is to vote against the Orange Sky Golden Harvest (01132) connected transaction recently. Most netizens do not know how to vote against it. From this, it can be seen that many retail investors may have already rolled in the stock market. For many years, but have not participated in voting or attending the general meeting of shareholders, directly to the management to express opinions or appeals.
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