Monthly Archives: December 2018

Outlook 2019 : Hope for tomorrow

After today, we officially farewell to 2018. On New Year’s Day, I would like to write and review the past of 2018. Today I am going to writing the 2019 outlook first.

Looking back at the 2018 and forecasts of the investment bank at the end of last year, they are wrong at all. The only difference is that there are a few mistakes. Looking at some of the sarcasm articles of snowballs a few days ago, it is said that a Chinese proprietorship’s 10 predictions in 2018 at the end of last year are very powerful, only half of them, and the difficulty is very high. In order to avoid being the object of ridicule by netizens next year, I will not write too much, just to explain the outlook for the first quarter of the year.
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Which is the trap for investors this year?

This year, the market has actually fallen not much. Until now, the HSI has only fallen by 13.5%. However, mines, especially last year’s star sector, have become the most popular investors this year.

Which section do you think is the most popular investor this year:

1. Mobile phone industry chain
2. Education
3. Science Network
4. Medicine
5. Car
6. Inner room
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The worse performance of WATER OASIS (01161)

The annual performance of Aos has disappointed the hopeful minority shareholders, even though this year’s profit has reached a new high since its listing in 2002.

In the first half of the year, the profit was 60 million yuan, while the profit in the second half was only about 35 million yuan, a decrease of about 25 million yuan from the first half of the year. I believe that there are two main reasons:
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Political Market

Now that the stock market is obviously a political city, the general manager, the intrusion, the one-word move, every move, and even more tweets, may cause market sentiment to change dramatically, so the HSI can rise 750 points on Monday and Tuesday. Everyone thought that the market could be at least worry-free before the end of the year, but it fell sharply. However, on Wednesday and Thursday, it fell 1100 points due to the big changes in the situation. The market suddenly turned from optimism to pessimism. It may be low-stopping today, it is the left one, the right one.
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Transit Shipping (00368) Trading Logic

Airborne shipping was inspired by two unexpected privatization cases this year (Guohao Group (00053) and Baosheng International (03813)).

In recent years, there have been more and more cases of privatization failures, starting from the failure of privatization of ZTE Aluminum (00098) last year, followed by New World China Department Store (00825), New City Development (01030), and Baosheng International (03813). And Guoco Group (00053) at the beginning of last month, among which I have participated in the development of Xingfa Aluminum, New World Department Store and New Town, and Baosheng International and Guohao have a high rate, so I did not participate at that time.
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