After today, we officially farewell to 2018. On New Year’s Day, I would like to write and review the past of 2018. Today I am going to writing the 2019 outlook first.
Looking back at the 2018 and forecasts of the investment bank at the end of last year, they are wrong at all. The only difference is that there are a few mistakes. Looking at some of the sarcasm articles of snowballs a few days ago, it is said that a Chinese proprietorship’s 10 predictions in 2018 at the end of last year are very powerful, only half of them, and the difficulty is very high. In order to avoid being the object of ridicule by netizens next year, I will not write too much, just to explain the outlook for the first quarter of the year.
2019 should also be a year of turbulent waves. I myself are pessimistic with expectations and greed.
Most listed companies will announce their results as of the end of 2018 in March next year. We should see that many of the results are retrogressive, or the results are in line with expectations, but the pessimistic guidance for the 2019 results may be affected. And fell again. In addition, in the past few times, the city of Da Lat has been bottoming out for a year or so. Therefore, if the market declines from February 2018, it is estimated that there will be a big chance to see the market in the first quarter of next year. bottom.
Secondly, the Sino-US Trade Negotiations will have a positive result in the first quarter and will also have a significant impact on Hong Kong stocks. If the agreement cannot be reached, the stock market will accelerate its decline and bottom out in the first quarter; if the agreement can be terminated or the trade war can be suspended, it can provide a short-term advantage for the market, but the result may be to extend the first quarter’s decline to the second or In the third quarter, the market will not be immediately transferred from the bear market to the bull market because of the end of the trade war.
The more pessimistic view is that 22,000 points will be seen in the first quarter of 2019, and it is hoped that the bearish fall will be completed in the first quarter. Although the expectations are pessimistic, I feel that investors with long-term goals will not be eager to panic or upset for possible declines. Instead, they should be regarded as a good time for low-level absorption. Of course, the premise is that you still have enough funds in your hands. For you to enter the market.
“Greed when others panic.” The famous saying of Warren Buffett should be heard more. In 2019, it is estimated that you can test your ability to implement this statement.