In the past few days, I have always said that I will maintain a higher proportion of cash levels. I used to have a cash level of more than 20%. Then I started to increase to 30% in September. In the past few months, I have been increasing my cash level. Going in the direction, after reducing some goods today, plus the previous Aoyuan Health (03662), Kaisa Yimei (02168), and the majority of Zhonghui Group (00382), now Almost 40% of the cash level should be the highest cash level in my last decade.
My mother-in-law like invest stock too, she love invest on Large Stocks and I love invest on Small and Medium-sized stocks either.
She saw the HSI decrease intensely in June 2018 and buy 1398 as the “LOW” simultaneously. Then, the stock price turns down. In November 2018, she asks me: “Will the stock drop deeply? Should I sell all of the stocks?”
She knows me is to monitor the stock market closed, so she always asks me questions and options. But I said I am focus on small and medium-sized stocks, large stock is not my investment target. I also know I will not good if my options are the fault, therefore I answer the question with ambiguous.
Now that the stock market is obviously a political city, the general manager, the intrusion, the one-word move, every move, and even more tweets, may cause market sentiment to change dramatically, so the HSI can rise 750 points on Monday and Tuesday. Everyone thought that the market could be at least worry-free before the end of the year, but it fell sharply. However, on Wednesday and Thursday, it fell 1100 points due to the big changes in the situation. The market suddenly turned from optimism to pessimism. It may be low-stopping today, it is the left one, the right one.
The so-called residual stocks refer to stocks whose stock prices have fallen to very bad.
The two small stocks held by the day before yesterday, Mei Gaoyu (01985) and Huaxin handbags (02683), were all in the same breath, and the two profit warnings were unexpected. They thought that the stock price would fall at least 10-20%, but I was surprised that I couldn’t think of the stock price just after a slight decline.
Then there is today’s TPV Technology (00903), the third quarter results turned into a profit, and the stock price rose 30%, which made me stunned, completely missed this performance.
Hong Kong stocks today showed a strong rebound momentum. Not only large-cap stocks, but also small and medium-sized stocks also performed well. Coupled with the two-day rise in US stocks, we may have a bear market and a bull market. In fact, similar rebounds have occurred several times in the past few months, but after each short-term rebound, we continue to find the bottom. This time I can’t see the exception.
The bottom of the intuition has not yet been seen, but the Hang Seng Index fell 2800 points in October. A slight rebound is a matter of course, so let’s see if it can regain 26,000 points. The strategy is still to rush to endure, will continue to segment the deployment of the bottom, but will not chase after the rebound. If the rebound is in a hurry, it may be reduced to cash, and then buy back.
The big bear market in 2008, or the stock market disaster, I am very scared for four reasons:
1. There were a lot of short positions in the portfolio at the time, especially SP. When the HSI fell sharply, the pressure on the deposit was very large and large, which would affect my judgment and operation of the stock market. So after the hardships in 2008, I drastically reduced the operation of derivatives. Now It’s just accidental, so now I don’t have to worry about it every day. I know that I may fall down the market today, or I can sleep until I open the market and wake up naturally;
2. Cash was exhausted prematurely. After the Hang Seng Index fell below 20,000 points that year, it has already felt that the market panic has been spreading and intensifying. Therefore, it feels that it is a good opportunity to buy goods. The more you buy, the more urgent it is, the less than 15,000 points, it has almost exhausted cash. I have already reached the final stage of the most panic. I have no cash to buy goods. I can only change my horse to a more valuable and undervalued stock. I missed many opportunities. Because there is no cash relationship, it is a step by step, very afraid, really as the experts at the time said that 10,000 points is not the bottom, but 6,7 thousand points is;